Week 1 NFL player projection
Khalil Shakir
PROJECTION
Khalil Shakir is a BUF WR facing HOU in Week 1. He averaged 45 receiving yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from -3 to 110. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
59
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.6
Receptions
BUF vs HOU · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Khalil Shakir is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 16.1 in 2022 to 44.9 in 2025 — up 179% — on 20 then 95 targets.
Measured against this week's 59.4 projection, he cleared it in 5 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 49.9 receiving yards per game early, then 40 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
44.9
Receiving Yards / game
5/16
games clearing this projection
95
targets
59%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (44). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (59.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 110 receiving yards in Week 12 against HOU; the quietest was -3 in Week 11 against TB. He finished above his own 45-per-game average in 8 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 16 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 54 yards. That single play is worth about 120% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 61% across his first 5 recorded games and 58% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 95 targets and 1 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF vs BAL | 6/9 | 64 | 0 | 71% | 26 |
| 2 | BUF vs NYJ | 1/2 | 12 | 0 | 49% | 12 |
| 3 | BUF vs MIA | 4/4 | 45 | 1 | 70% | 15 |
| 4 | BUF vs NO | 5/5 | 69 | 1 | 53% | 43 |
| 5 | BUF vs NE | 6/9 | 45 | 0 | 63% | 18 |
| 6 | BUF vs ATL | 3/5 | 33 | 0 | 60% | 15 |
| 8 | BUF vs CAR | 6/7 | 88 | 1 | 48% | 54 |
| 9 | BUF vs KC | 7/8 | 43 | 0 | 61% | 20 |
| 10 | BUF vs MIA | 7/9 | 58 | 0 | 66% | 24 |
| 11 | BUF vs TB | 1/3 | -3 | 0 | 54% | -- |
| 12 | BUF vs HOU | 8/10 | 110 | 0 | 67% | 44 |
| 13 | BUF vs PIT | 1/4 | 5 | 0 | 49% | 5 |
| 14 | BUF vs CIN | 2/3 | 16 | 1 | 50% | 11 |
| 15 | BUF vs NE | 5/5 | 65 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | BUF vs CLE | 4/5 | 34 | 0 | 48% | 18 |
| 17 | BUF vs PHI | 6/7 | 35 | 0 | 78% | 13 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10 | 20 | 161 | 16.1 | 1 | 3.7 |
| 2023 | 16 | 45 | 611 | 38.2 | 2 | 8.3 |
| 2024 | 15 | 100 | 821 | 54.7 | 4 | 14.7 |
| 2025 | 16 | 95 | 719 | 44.9 | 4 | 12.6 |
CAREER VS HOU
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 12 | BUF | 8/10 | 110 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Khalil Shakir is tagged as WR2 rotation for BUF. The page uses top-2 WR projection volume for BUF, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with HOU ranked #6 vs WR and allowing 21.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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