Week 1 NFL player projection
Joshua Palmer
PROJECTION
Joshua Palmer is a BUF WR facing HOU in Week 1. He averaged 25 receiving yards across 12 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 1 to 61. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE JOSHUA PALMER IS TRENDING
The trend on Joshua Palmer points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 48.1 in 2022 to 25.2 in 2025 — down 48%.
Availability is part of the story: 12 games on record in 2025, best of 61 in Week 1, worst of 1.
Measured against this week's 50.6 projection, he cleared it in 2 of 12 games last season.
Split his 12 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 39 receiving yards per game early, then 11.5 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
51
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.9
Receptions
BUF vs HOU · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
25.2
Receiving Yards / game
2/12
games clearing this projection
37
targets
50%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (19). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (50.6). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 61 receiving yards in Week 1 against BAL; the quietest was 1 in Week 18 against NYJ. He finished above his own 25-per-game average in 4 of 12 games.
He did not account for a touchdown in any of his 12 recorded 2025 games, so none of the projection above leans on touchdown equity.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 45 yards. That single play is worth about 178% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 52% of snaps across his first 3 recorded games, then 68% across his last 3 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 37 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF vs BAL | 5/9 | 61 | 0 | 62% | 32 |
| 2 | BUF vs NYJ | 2/3 | 47 | 0 | 51% | 32 |
| 3 | BUF vs MIA | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 43% | 5 |
| 4 | BUF vs NO | 2/3 | 25 | 0 | 25% | 14 |
| 5 | BUF vs NE | 2/2 | 36 | 0 | 51% | 23 |
| 6 | BUF vs ATL | 2/2 | 60 | 0 | 11% | 45 |
| 11 | BUF vs TB | 2/5 | 17 | 0 | 50% | 13 |
| 12 | BUF vs HOU | 2/4 | 21 | 0 | 50% | 44 |
| 15 | BUF vs NE | 1/2 | 16 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | BUF vs CLE | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 70% | 2 |
| 17 | BUF vs PHI | 1/2 | 12 | 0 | 50% | 12 |
| 18 | BUF vs NYJ | 1/3 | 1 | 0 | 84% | 1 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 107 | 769 | 48.1 | 3 | 12.7 |
| 2023 | 10 | 61 | 581 | 58.1 | 2 | 12.7 |
| 2024 | 15 | 65 | 584 | 38.9 | 1 | 8.2 |
| 2025 | 12 | 37 | 303 | 25.2 | 0 | 5.2 |
CAREER VS HOU
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 12 | BUF | 2/4 | 21 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 4 | LAC | 1/1 | 25 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Joshua Palmer is tagged as WR4 rotation for BUF. The page uses top-4 WR projection volume for BUF, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with HOU ranked #6 vs WR and allowing 21.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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