Week 1 NFL player projection
Geno Smith
PROJECTION
Geno Smith is a NYJ QB facing TEN in Week 1. He averaged 202 passing yards across 15 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 67 to 362. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
219
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
NYJ vs TEN · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Geno Smith has been consistent rather than trending. 201.7 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 251.9 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 218.7 projection, he cleared it in 6 of 15 games last season.
Split his 15 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 202.4 passing yards per game early, then 201 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
201.7
Passing Yards / game
6/15
games clearing this projection
19
touchdowns
97%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (180). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (218.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 362 passing yards in Week 1 against NE; the quietest was 67 in Week 7 against KC. He finished above his own 202-per-game average in 6 of 15 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 11 of 15 games, and more than one in 5 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 61 yards. That single play is worth about 30% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 100% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 93% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 41 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV vs NE | 0/0 | 362 | 1 | 100% | 38 |
| 2 | LV vs LAC | 0/0 | 180 | 0 | 100% | 25 |
| 3 | LV vs WAS | 0/0 | 289 | 3 | 100% | 61 |
| 4 | LV vs CHI | 0/0 | 117 | 2 | 100% | 20 |
| 5 | LV vs IND | 0/0 | 228 | 0 | 100% | 33 |
| 6 | LV vs TEN | 0/0 | 174 | 1 | 100% | 37 |
| 7 | LV vs KC | 0/0 | 67 | 0 | 86% | 14 |
| 9 | LV vs JAX | 0/0 | 284 | 4 | 100% | 27 |
| 10 | LV vs DEN | 0/0 | 143 | 0 | 97% | 31 |
| 11 | LV vs DAL | 0/0 | 238 | 1 | 100% | 26 |
| 12 | LV vs CLE | 0/0 | 285 | 1 | 100% | 33 |
| 13 | LV vs LAC | 0/0 | 165 | 2 | 100% | 27 |
| 14 | LV vs DEN | 0/0 | 116 | 1 | 74% | 17 |
| 16 | LV vs HOU | 0/0 | 201 | 2 | 100% | 60 |
| 17 | LV vs NYG | 0/0 | 176 | 1 | 90% | 26 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 0 | 4,282 | 251.9 | 31 | 21.6 |
| 2023 | 15 | 1 | 3,624 | 241.6 | 21 | 17.8 |
| 2024 | 17 | 0 | 4,320 | 254.1 | 23 | 18.1 |
| 2025 | 15 | 0 | 3,025 | 201.7 | 19 | 14.1 |
CAREER VS TEN
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 6 | LV | 0/0 | 174 | 1 |
| 2023 | Wk 16 | SEA | 0/0 | 227 | 2 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Geno Smith is tagged as starter for NYJ. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with TEN ranked #28 vs QB and allowing 19.3 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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