Week 1 NFL player projection
Isaiah Williams
PROJECTION
Isaiah Williams is a NYJ WR facing TEN in Week 1. He averaged 13 receiving yards across 15 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 53. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
50
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.6
Receptions
NYJ vs TEN · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Isaiah Williams is short: 15 games in 2025 for 193 receiving yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 50.2 projection, he cleared it in 1 of 15 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
12.9
Receiving Yards / game
1/15
games clearing this projection
36
targets
34%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (2). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (50.2). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 53 receiving yards in Week 15 against JAX; the quietest was 0 in Week 13 against ATL. He finished above his own 13-per-game average in 6 of 15 games.
He did not account for a touchdown in any of his 15 recorded 2025 games, so none of the projection above leans on touchdown equity.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 25 yards. That single play is worth about 194% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 29% of snaps across his first 3 recorded games, then 66% across his last 3 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 36 targets and 3 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NYJ vs BUF | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | -- |
| 3 | NYJ vs TB | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | -- |
| 4 | NYJ vs MIA | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -- |
| 6 | NYJ vs DEN | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | -- |
| 7 | NYJ vs CAR | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | -- |
| 8 | NYJ vs CIN | 3/4 | 31 | 0 | 42% | 25 |
| 10 | NYJ vs CLE | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 43% | 4 |
| 11 | NYJ vs NE | 1/4 | 2 | 0 | 74% | 4 |
| 12 | NYJ vs BAL | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 27% | -- |
| 13 | NYJ vs ATL | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 39% | -- |
| 14 | NYJ vs MIA | 2/3 | 24 | 0 | 57% | 15 |
| 15 | NYJ vs JAX | 6/7 | 53 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | NYJ vs NO | 4/4 | 25 | 0 | 77% | 12 |
| 17 | NYJ vs NE | 4/5 | 30 | 0 | 69% | 10 |
| 18 | NYJ vs BUF | 5/7 | 24 | 0 | 52% | 13 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 2025 | 15 | 36 | 193 | 12.9 | 0 | 3.9 |
CAREER VS TEN
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 8 | DET | 2/3 | 6 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Isaiah Williams is tagged as WR3 rotation for NYJ. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for NYJ, then layers in a softer prior matchup with TEN ranked #31 vs WR and allowing 29.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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