Week 1 NFL player projection
Breece Hall
PROJECTION
Breece Hall is a NYJ RB facing TEN in Week 1. He averaged 67 rushing yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 21 to 133. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
57
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1.8
Receptions
NYJ vs TEN · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Breece Hall has been consistent rather than trending. 66.6 rushing yards per game in 2025, compared with 58.5 in 2023 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 56.7 projection, he cleared it in 9 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 72.6 rushing yards per game early, then 60.5 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
66.6
Rushing Yards / game
9/16
games clearing this projection
48
targets
65%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (58.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (56.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 133 rushing yards in Week 8 against CIN; the quietest was 21 in Week 3 against TB. He finished above his own 67-per-game average in 7 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 16 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 59 yards. That single play is worth about 89% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 60% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 69% across his last 5 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 48 targets and 243 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ vs PIT | 2/4 | 107 | 0 | 58% | 33 |
| 2 | NYJ vs BUF | 2/3 | 29 | 0 | 64% | 12 |
| 3 | NYJ vs TB | 4/6 | 21 | 0 | 55% | 17 |
| 4 | NYJ vs MIA | 5/6 | 81 | 0 | 63% | 23 |
| 5 | NYJ vs DAL | 4/5 | 113 | 0 | 62% | 22 |
| 6 | NYJ vs DEN | 0/0 | 59 | 0 | 74% | 8 |
| 7 | NYJ vs CAR | 2/3 | 38 | 0 | 54% | 8 |
| 8 | NYJ vs CIN | 2/3 | 133 | 3 | 56% | 35 |
| 10 | NYJ vs CLE | 1/1 | 83 | 1 | 71% | 42 |
| 11 | NYJ vs NE | 2/2 | 58 | 0 | 72% | 11 |
| 12 | NYJ vs BAL | 4/4 | 44 | 0 | 71% | 40 |
| 13 | NYJ vs ATL | 2/2 | 68 | 1 | 88% | 13 |
| 14 | NYJ vs MIA | 0/1 | 43 | 0 | 76% | 11 |
| 15 | NYJ vs JAX | 2/2 | 23 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | NYJ vs NO | 2/3 | 54 | 0 | 64% | 10 |
| 17 | NYJ vs NE | 2/3 | 111 | 1 | 48% | 59 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7 | 31 | 463 | 66.1 | 5 | 17.9 |
| 2023 | 17 | 95 | 994 | 58.5 | 9 | 19.2 |
| 2024 | 16 | 76 | 876 | 54.8 | 8 | 16.7 |
| 2025 | 16 | 48 | 1,065 | 66.6 | 6 | 14.3 |
CAREER VS TEN
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 2 | NYJ | 7/8 | 62 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Breece Hall is tagged as RB1 for NYJ. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with TEN ranked #19 vs RB and allowing 20.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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