Week 1 NFL player projection
Garrett Wilson
PROJECTION
Garrett Wilson is a NYJ WR facing TEN in Week 1. He averaged 56 receiving yards across 7 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 95. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
72
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.4
Receptions
NYJ vs TEN · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Garrett Wilson has been consistent rather than trending. 64.9 receiving yards per game in 2024, compared with 64.9 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 71.7 projection, he cleared it in 3 of 7 games last season.
Split his 7 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 76.3 receiving yards per game early, then 41.5 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
56.4
Receiving Yards / game
3/7
games clearing this projection
59
targets
87%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (71). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (71.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 95 receiving yards in Week 1 against PIT; the quietest was 0 in Week 10 against CLE. He finished above his own 56-per-game average in 4 of 7 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 7 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 33 yards. That single play is worth about 58% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 97% of snaps across his first 2 recorded games, then 62% across his last 2 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 59 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ vs PIT | 7/9 | 95 | 1 | 100% | 33 |
| 2 | NYJ vs BUF | 4/8 | 50 | 0 | 94% | 18 |
| 3 | NYJ vs TB | 10/13 | 84 | 1 | 100% | 17 |
| 4 | NYJ vs MIA | 6/8 | 82 | 1 | 98% | 23 |
| 5 | NYJ vs DAL | 6/10 | 71 | 1 | 94% | 25 |
| 6 | NYJ vs DEN | 3/8 | 13 | 0 | 84% | 7 |
| 10 | NYJ vs CLE | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 39% | -- |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 147 | 1,103 | 64.9 | 4 | 15.2 |
| 2023 | 17 | 168 | 1,042 | 61.3 | 3 | 15.5 |
| 2024 | 17 | 153 | 1,104 | 64.9 | 7 | 17.8 |
| 2025 | 7 | 59 | 395 | 56.4 | 4 | 16.8 |
CAREER VS TEN
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 2 | NYJ | 4/6 | 57 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Garrett Wilson is tagged as WR1 for NYJ. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with TEN ranked #31 vs WR and allowing 29.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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