Week 1 NFL player projection
Adonai Mitchell
PROJECTION
Adonai Mitchell is a NYJ WR facing TEN in Week 1. He averaged 28 receiving yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 102. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
56
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.6
Receptions
NYJ vs TEN · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Adonai Mitchell is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 18.4 in 2024 to 28.3 in 2025 — up 54% — on 55 then 74 targets.
Measured against this week's 56.3 projection, he cleared it in 3 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 19 receiving yards per game early, then 37.6 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
28.3
Receiving Yards / game
3/16
games clearing this projection
74
targets
49%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (20.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (56.3). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 102 receiving yards in Week 13 against ATL; the quietest was 0 in Week 18 against BUF. He finished above his own 28-per-game average in 5 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 2 of 16 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 75 yards. That single play is worth about 265% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 34% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 79% across his last 5 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 74 targets and 1 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND vs MIA | 2/2 | 21 | 0 | 21% | 18 |
| 2 | IND vs DEN | 2/4 | 20 | 0 | 10% | 12 |
| 3 | IND vs TEN | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 42% | -- |
| 4 | IND vs LA | 3/4 | 96 | 0 | 89% | 75 |
| 5 | IND vs LV | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -- |
| 7 | IND vs LAC | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 8% | 8 |
| 8 | IND vs TEN | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 17% | -- |
| 9 | IND vs PIT | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | 7 |
| 11 | NYJ vs NE | 1/6 | 10 | 0 | 49% | 10 |
| 12 | NYJ vs BAL | 2/7 | 42 | 0 | 85% | 26 |
| 13 | NYJ vs ATL | 8/12 | 102 | 1 | 86% | 52 |
| 14 | NYJ vs MIA | 1/6 | 24 | 0 | 91% | 24 |
| 15 | NYJ vs JAX | 6/9 | 58 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | NYJ vs NO | 3/6 | 43 | 0 | 86% | 26 |
| 17 | NYJ vs NE | 3/9 | 22 | 0 | 81% | 8 |
| 18 | NYJ vs BUF | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 52% | -- |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | 55 | 312 | 18.4 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 2025 | 16 | 74 | 453 | 28.3 | 2 | 6.4 |
CAREER VS TEN
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 8 | IND | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | Wk 3 | IND | 0/2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 16 | IND | 1/1 | 36 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 6 | IND | 2/4 | 9 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Adonai Mitchell is tagged as WR2 rotation for NYJ. The page uses top-2 WR projection volume for NYJ, then layers in a softer prior matchup with TEN ranked #31 vs WR and allowing 29.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator